While many of us grew up in a world with globalization as a natural that seemed to be moved by gravitational force, this pandemic has moved this post-WWII system, The Order as geopolitical scientists call it in a different direction. Global systems will fade out (the US will have less impact as it is pulling out of the global management business) and two systems will emerge, one designed by the US, and the other, a new system designed by China. Look for a polarized world in which food, technology and energy are managed by the two leaders.
The future will have two global systems with Japan, the UK and northern Europe on one side supporting the US, and many Asian nations, Eastern Europe and Middle Eastern countries on the other side – China will be leading this group. Going forward there will be two 5G systems, and two completely different systems in all tech space with two different clouds, and two different big data systems. This fracturing is at odds with globalization. Also, both labor and capital are becoming disintgermediators – and the economies will now move toward a more confused world.
The single driver called globalization has now moved into a different direction. Look for powerful regions, much like pre-WWII. A state capitalist economy will be the global leader as China steps onto the global stage, and democracies will fade in terms of influence.
Our interests in food and energy security are deep and the key question is just how many countries will be able to feed themselves? How will they manage all manufacturing that returns home?