While many economists are concerned about global growth, there is a growing view that a second wave of coronavirus could force a global GDP contraction of 7.6% in 2020. This would make it well short of the pre-crisis growth level, by the end of next year. France, the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy are expected to face sharp contractions in GDP this year, and there is concern that a second wave would send their economies into a tailspin. The OECD makes a great point, as this would be the worst economic recession or depression – outside of wars – in the past 100 years. The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development has raised this red flag as a warning – some experts suggest a second wave may take place in fall or winter of 2020.
Still, many economists are saying that the growth rate in GDP terms will be minus 6% in 2020 and could recover to normal in 2021, near the previous growth rate before the crisis starting in 2019. These are the discussions taking place in banks and global agencies that focus on international trade and investment. Also, note that there are economies opening up around the world and the question of faster than expected growth and expansion is on the table – some economists are looking for a two level or tiered system. There could be a divide in the winners and losers as some economies will not fully recover for years.